Zeitschrift für Agrarwissenschaft und Lebensmittelforschung
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Causes of Household Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Semi-Arid Kenya: Application of a Stationary Stochastic Model

Dorothy Amwata, D. M. Nyariki

Agriculture is the mainstay of Kenya’s economy. However, opportunities for increasing agricultural production in the high potential zones of the country have declined and land pressure has gradually pushed the populations to more marginal areas, so that ensuring adequate food for the people has continued to be difficult. This concern has led to renewed interest in improving food production in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL). Understanding the factors that determine the vulnerability of households to food insecurity in the drylands may thus be a fundamental step towards addressing the problem. This study was conducted in two ASAL counties of Kenya-Kajiado and Makueniinhabited by pastoral communities. Using income per adult equivalent as a proxy for food security, since its computation represented food availability and access, time series data covering 31 years on climate and socioeconomic aspects were fitted to regression models and tested through OLS, AR and GLS approaches using a stationary stochastic process. Of the three models, GLS was the most appropriate based on the number of significant variables and the estimated R² values. It was shown that rainfall, temperature, rain days, and real beef and maize prices influence the level of incomes and hence the availability of and access to food in Kajiado and Makueni Counties. The implication is that initiatives that ameliorate the effects of climate variability on food production and regulate beef and maize prices would ensure predictable food markets and income, and would therefore reduce the vulnerability of households to food insecurity.