Zeitschrift für Agrarwissenschaft und Lebensmittelforschung
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Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Bread Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Production in Central Highlands of Ethiopia

Abu Tolcha Gari, Mezegebu Getnet and Lisanework Nigatu

In countries like Ethiopia where vulnerability is high and adaptive capacity is low, studying impacts of climate change and adaptation measures at local scale is critical. In view of this, this study was conducted in Arsi Robe, Asasa, Debre Zeit and Kulumsa areas of central highlands of Ethiopia to model impacts of the changing climate on wheat production by 2050s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Historical climate data (1981-2015), future climate data downscaled using the ensemble of seventeen climate models, crop and soil data were analyzed using crop simulation model to assess impacts of climate change on wheat yield. The crop model simulation indicated a negative impact on wheat yield in all study sites under both RCPs. There will be high yield reduction under RCP 4.5 than under RCP 8.5 at Arsi Robe and Asasa while the reverse is true at Debre Zeit and Kulumsa sites for Dandaa and Kakaba cultivars. Comparing the two cultivars, Kakaba showed high yield potential than Dandaa in all study sites. Besides, the yield of both cultivars showed declined median from the baseline yield under both RCPs and the yield variability is higher under the baseline conditions than for the future climate conditions.