Zeitschrift für Lebensmittel : Mikrobiologie, Sicherheit und Hygiene
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Prognose der langfristigen Getreidenachfrage in China unter Berücksichtigung der Nexus-Effekte von Bevölkerungsstruktur, Ernährungsstruktur und Fruchtbarkeitspolitik

Xiuli Liu*, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Yuxing Dou, Shouyang Wang, Dabo Guan

The population's Age-Gender Structure (AGS) and Dietary Structure (DS) are undergoing rapid changes in China. Moreover, China had further relaxed its family planning policy in 2021. However, few studies have considered these factors simultaneously in forecasting Food Grain Demand (FGD). We established a model to forecast China's annual FGD during 2021-2050, considering the nexus effects of changing AGS, DS, urbanization rate, food waste, etc. The results show that the FGD would peak around 2031 at [319.6, 327.8] million tons with a balanced diet. It might overestimate the FGD by about 2.7-5.2% if AGS was ignored. Interestingly, a relaxing family planning policy has little effect on China's FGD; adopting a balanced diet in China can save about 7.7% of the FGD. In 2050, FGD of urban males and females will account for 43.2% and 40.7% of the total FGD, respectively. Suggestions that help ensure food security and sustainability were provided.